VPP Forecasting

Recurve's VPP Forecasting solution gives utilities and regulators the insight they need to seamlessly forecast and manage the impacts of behind-the-meter resources and create virtual power plants equivalent to traditional energy resources.

Unique Benefits

  • Individual Meter Modeling - Model and forecast every meter endpoint on the grid. This granular approach allows utilities to create customized portfolios and roll them into comprehensive portfolios, allowing for a more tailored strategy and deployment than pooled regressions and deemed averages.  
  • Portfolio Level Precision - Forecasting tools start at the individual meter. They can be aggregated to the grid with extreme accuracy at the portfolio level, giving grid planners confidence in large-scale deployment.  
  • Actual Performance Data vs. Physics Models, Studies, and Polls - An approach of leveraging  measured performance data versus physics models or Excel spreadsheets. This enables you to identify likely candidates for different DERs and allow for more granular and accurate planning.  
  • Easily Manage Distributed Resources and Markets - Distributed behind-the-meter resources represent a significant challenge to traditional demand-side management techniques. Now utilities can model millions of distributed resources at a petabyte scale with revenue-grade transparency.

Challenges and Impact

  • Understanding Energy Usage Behind the Meter - Accurately gauging energy utilization in residential and commercial buildings has always been challenging; incorporating new behind-the-meter technologies has only made the problem more difficult.  
  • Foreseeing DER Impact - For grid planners, it's paramount to understand how technologies such as heat pumps, smart thermostats, and electric vehicle chargers will influence the grid in real time and into the future.  
  • Integration Complexity - Traditional methods often fall short when dealing with the complex, multifaceted world of DERs and virtual power plants, leading to inaccurate forecasts.

Recurve’s VPP solution paves the way for integrating distributed resources into the energy mix with the same confidence and predictability as traditional, large supply-side assets. Put your smart meter data to work and embrace the future of grid planning with Recurve’s VPP Forecasting Solution.

The rise of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) such as solar panels and heat pumps has transformed the dynamics of energy use. This shift from traditional large-scale power generation to diverse, smaller-scale distributed technologies integrated into virtual power plants (VPPs) requires a new, advanced, data-driven approach for accurately forecasting grid and customer impacts. For grid planners, it's critical to understand how solar panels, heat pumps, smart thermostats, electric vehicle chargers, and other technologies will influence the grid in real time and into the future. Knowing how participating in a VPP will affect comfort, convenience, and cost is essential for utility customers. 

Traditional energy models and forecasts were not built to account for this constantly evolving environment. The sheer volume and dynamic nature of data from DERs demands advanced analytics and sophisticated software. Open-source tools are essential for innovation and transparency so regulators and stakeholders can trust these new methods. 

Recurve’s VPP Forecasting solution predicts and optimizes the impacts of behind-the-meter demand flexibility technologies to support the decarbonization of the grid. Designed for utilities and regulators, our platform utilizes open-source measured performance data from real DER implementations to provide data-driven site-level forecasts, which can be evaluated against simulations and deemed estimates. 

Harnessing the power of cloud computing, advanced M&V analytics, and smart meter interval data (now available for 80% of US customers), Recurve’s Forecasting solution can leverage petabytes of data to model each meter and distributed resources on the grid unlocking new forecasting capabilities and providing unparalleled insight for grid planners.

Recurve’s VPP Forecasting Solution 

  • Leveraging Actual Performance Data Ensures Accuracy - Unlike other approaches that rely on models or estimates, our platform capitalizes on real-world performance data, enabling a forecast of VPP impacts based on tangible results rather than theoretical concepts. 
  • Meter-Level Forecasting - With smart meter data, we can create specific models for every customer, thereby understanding individual consumption patterns and potential DER impacts. 
  • Locational Capabilities - Meter-level forecasts can be aggregated locationally, granting utilities and regulators the power to target specific areas of the grid, a feature particularly crucial for addressing issues such as distribution constraints. 
  • Resource Mapping - Using patterns from AMI data, find where particular kinds of customers are, such as those who do or do not have air conditioning or those who own electric vehicles.  

Unprecedented Data Handling Capacity - The Recurve platform is architected to efficiently manage and model every customer meter on the grid.

Want to learn more?

Schedule a call with one of our specialists to learn how our solutions can transform your distributed energy resource strategy.

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